BigWersk’s BOLD predicitions: 2011 MLB Season

Opening day is finally upon us, but i’ll save you the trouble of watching 162 long boring baseball games and let you know whats going to happen.

NL East: The Nationals are an interesting team offensively and might surprise a few folks, but pitching is the name of the game and they just don’t have any.  They’ll be in cellar.  The Marlins have some decent pitching, solid youngsters, and Hanley Ramirez but they’re not well-rounded enough to compete with the big boys at the top of the division.  The Mets are intriguing as far as the line up is concerned.  But too much is riding on aging and injury riddled Beltran and Santana.  Although I think they’ll put up a decent showing this year, they’ll be battling for 3rd with the Marlins.  The Phillies have a legit all-star rotation top to bottom, might be one of the best we’ve seen in a long time.  However, they’ll struggle offensively and might have some back of the bull pen issues.  Sooooo I’m talking the Braves to win the division.  But its about as close to a push as there is this season.  Braves are very balanced and will squeak by the Phillies by maybe a game.

NL Central:  The Pirates are well…the Pirates and perennial sellers of good young talent.  They’re bad.  After that this is where this division gets interesting.  The Astros look like they might have a healthy amount of fire power at the plate, but whether or not the pitching can step up  is a question.  They’ve got the arms who knows if they’ll show.  The cubs added by subtraction with the departure of Lou Pinella last season.  They’ve got a good pitching staff but poor defense and too many question marks for offense.  They’ll be better than last year but still need to get out from under a couple of bad contracts before they can be factor.  The Cardinals are solid top to bottom but the loss of Wainwright is a huge blow.  Regardless they’ve got Pujols and they’re still going to be a tough out for anyone.  The Reds are basically the same as last season so there shouldn’t be a drop off in their abilities.  The only concern here is whether or not Baker will find a way to burn out his young pitchers.  The Astros, cubs, Cardinals, and Reds are all going to compete making this summer a fun one for NL Central fans, but the Milwaukee Brewers will come out on top.  They’ve finally gotten a solid pitching staff to go along with their explosive offense.  Only concerns are some early season injuries and an average defense.  But they’ll win the division in a tight race with 3 maybe 4 teams contending.

NL West:   Even though the Padres surprised a lot of people hanging in contention for most of the season last year, they’re still the bottom of the barrel here.  Their best player is now in Boston.  The D-Backs are sort of in no man’s land.  It seems like they’ve got a shot at being competitive but at the same time they could be battling the Padres for last place.  The Rockies always seem to out perform expectations and this year will probably be no different.  However I don’t know if they can be as good away from Coors Field as they are at home.  The Dodgers are expected to have a drop off but I think their well-rounded and will raise some eyebrows this season.  They’re a real dark horse at winning this division.  However, I’ve got to take the defending world champions to win.  Even though they look very challenged offensively, their pitching is top-notch.  The Giants, Dodgers, and Rockies will take it to the wire with the Giants winning out.

NL Wild Card: Phillies

 

 

AL East: In Baltimore, Buck’s boys can bat!  But that’s about it.  After Guthrie I’m not sure who will be able to step up in that rotation. The arrow is pointing up for this team, but it’s pointing up from the bottom of the division.  Toronto isn’t far ahead of the Os, actually I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jays were in last this season.   But they do have some good young pitching and some spot pop in the line up.  The Rays had to move some salary and are firmly on the decline.  However, they still have a lot of good young hitters and a great manager.  3rd place is firmly theirs.  Well well well…what a surprise, down to the Yankees and Red Sox.  Frankly I hate both teams and don’t care what either does.  Yankees don’t have the pitching and are getting long in the tooth.   Red Sox got considerably better in the off-season, Bo Sox take the division.

AL Central:  Kansas City is still Kansas City only they dealt away their best starting pitcher.  They’ll be able to score runs but the problem is they won’t be able to keep other teams from scoring.  The only reason why the Indians might finish ahead of the Royals is they have a little better rotation.  Otherwise they’re pretty similar.  Both teams will be towards the bottom of the AL.  The Tigers are touted as a serious contender this year but I just don’t see it.  That’s not to say they won’t be competitive as they have tons of power and one of the top pitchers in baseball with Verlander.  But after Verlander their rotation isn’t very scary and they don’t have a proven bullpen.  Either way they’re going to hang with the top teams in the division but fall just short. The Twins are pesky with a lot of power in their line up and sneaky good pitching.  Even though they won without them last year this season rides on the healthy return of Nathan and Morneau.  If those two return to form the Twins will be every bit as good as they have been the last couple seasons.  So long as the White Sox shake their Minneapolis curse they should take this division in yet another tight race.  In a division where 3 teams really can take it all, I feel that the Sox will edge out the competition.

AL West:  The Mariners have some nice pieces but not a complete team…aaannnd Milton Bradley.  I really feel sorry for Ichiro because that guy deserves to be on a winner.  Not this year though.  The Angels are getting long in the tooth but also have some nice pieces mixed in.   They’ve got three legit starters so they should be competitive, certainly more so than the Mariners.  I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if they jumped up and contended for the division.  But right now on paper I’ve got them 3rd.  I really don’t know why, but I’ve got Oakland 2nd.  Their pitching has the chance at being really good but I’m not sure where the offense is going to come from.  Lets call it a toss-up between the A’s and the Angels.  Texas is the cream of the western crop.   Tons of offense and solid pitching will have them winning the west without a problem.

AL Wild Card: Twins

 

 

 

 

NL: Braves, Brewers, Giants, and WC Phillies

AL: Red Sox, White Sox, Rangers, and WC Twins

World Series: White Sox v Braves

White Sox 2011 World Champions

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White Sox 2011 Season Preview!

Sinch it up, hunker down, strap it in, lock it up, tie it down, and duct tape it up its time for White Sox baseball.  With the 2011 campaign poised to begin on Thursday night for MLB, its time for anyone with an opinion to break down the season and make predictions that will probably be wrong…heres mine.

There simply aren’t a lot of negatives when you look at this club.  The only knock might be lack of big time star power other than perhaps Dunn.  But calling that a bad thing is a stretch.  The 2011 White Sox are powerful, quick, well coached, and balanced top to bottom.  Because of this their success this year will be gauged less on their abilities and more on the abilities of their opponents.  Both the Twins and the Tigers look good and the AL central should be another dog fight till the end.  With that said I have the 2011 Chicago White Sox at 93-69 and winning the division in a tight race.  Below is the breakdown.

Offense:  Grade  A

This season is all about the off season acquisition of Big Donkey Adam Dunn.  He’s the prototypical lefty anchor of the line up that GMs dream of and the White Sox were missing *cough *cough Thome.  Even though Dunn is going to strike out a lot, especially facing better pitching in the AL, his OPS will make up for it…bring a glove if you’re sitting in right field at the cell this summer.  Simply put Dunn is a top 5 hitter in the Majors.  Around Dunn is a line up balanced with speed, contact, power, youth, and veteran hitters.  Both Pierre and Beckham will be setting the table for Dunn and they both look very capably of doing so with respectable OBPs.  With Dunn batting behind them, their averages and steals  should increase because pitchers will be afraid to put them on base offering up the chance at 2 or 3 run homers.

After Dunn comes Konerko and Rios.  Konerko is the seasoned veteran who you can pretty much bank on 30-35 HRs and around 100 RBI.  He’s got a nasty habit of coming out of the gates pretty slow though, which could put some sag in the middle of that line up early on.  However, around him is enough talent to mitigate any early season slumping that may or may not occur because Rios could be set for another All Star season.  With all the fire power ahead of him its easy to forget his abilities at the plate.  But quietly hes had a solid full season last year with the club and is having a great spring.  He’s also no slouch on the bases, look for a 30 and 30 campaign and an All Star invite in 2011 for Rios.

Then come Pierzynski and Quentin.  These two are really the more interesting hitters in the line up.  They really can be up or down.  Aj can and has had some serious hot streaks, borderline carrying the team.  But his age is starting to show.  The best the Sox can hope for is a decent contact hitter from the left side of the plate and some spot power.   Ohhh Carlos, what can I say.  Sox fans saw him put MVP numbers up and have ridden the roller coaster since.  For Carlos the story will be his health and if he can relax at the plate.  Its a good sign that he has had a very productive spring because of good health and relaxing a bit.  If sustained through the season, he will be giving opposing pitchers fits.

Rounding off the order are Alexei Ramirez and the rookie Brent Morel.  Ramirez is yet another well rounded dangerous hitter who won’t be over looked by the opposition.   Don’t let his skinny demeanor and 8 hole slot in the line up fool you.  Alexei can hit for power with 18 hrs and 70 RBI last season.  More importantly he’s got a knack for the clutch hit.  Morel is a rookie feeling his way into the majors.  Fans should have some patience with him as he will struggle.  However Ozzie has openly given him the ok to do what he can at the plate and focus on his defense at third.  This ease on pressure might let him surprise a few folks with a decent average, but don’t count on much else.

Defense: grade A

Solid defense is built up the middle and the White Sox are gold glove caliber in this regard.  Aj doesn’t throw many base runners out, but then again neither does any catcher in the majors.  His skills reside at knocking down balls in the dirt and managing the staff, both of which he does with ease.  The pitchers for the most part field extremely well for their position.  Buehrle did have the defensive play of the year last year mind you!  But as a unit they are not a liability which won’t make the Sox susceptible to the bunt single.   Both Alexei and Gordon are stout middle infielders who will wow spectators flashing some leather.  Ramirez can however take a mental lapse occasionally on the routine play and Beckham is a natural short stop playing 2nd.  Don’t let these points detract from their prowess up the middle, no need to worry defensively for either of those positions.  Finally, Rios in center is a joy to watch.  He covers the gaps and makes spectacular catches all look routine.  Almost to his detriment, because it looks that easy when he’s doing it.

The corner infielders aren’t as good as the middle ones.  Morel at 3rd is a rookie who will have to prove himself.  But, his M.O. is his defense.  In some time up with the club last year Morel did show that he is more than serviceable at the hot corner with the potential at being great.  Yet, I want to see him do it over the course of a full season before making any concrete assessments.  Konerko and Dunn will platoon at first which might be a bit of an adventure, mainly on Dunn’s side.  Pauly is a better fielder than many will give him credit for but Dunn is basically serviceable.  Its because of this Pauly should see the lion share of 1st base duty with Dunn at the DH.

The corner outfielders won’t wow anyone either.  Pierre in left has a so so glove and arm, but his speed does help him.  The same can be said about Quentin in right, minus the speed and a better arm.  However, neither are horrible to the point of being  liabilities and Rios’s range in center helps mitigate issues in the gaps.   Additionally, Ozzie has solid defenders in Lillibridge and Milledge for late inning defensive subs to take any serious risk out of the field.

Pitching: grade B

The White Sox starting rotation is built on horses 1-4 with Buehrle, Jackson, Danks, and Floyd.  Although the talent level is high, these guys are the type that will grind out the season, eat up a lot of innings, and all end up around 15 wins meaning there aren’t All Star numbers in the lot.  However, numbers aren’t the only thing that matters.  These four will keep the Sox in most games and their above average defense will help to cover up any other inadequacies.   The real question mark comes in the 5 hole with the on going injury saga of Jake Peavy.  Philip Humber is slated to fill that role until Peavy is ready to return and I can honestly tell you I know nothing about him what so ever…sorry.  What I do know is that he’ll probably have a handful of starts and then head into the bull pen as the middle/long reliever.  The main concern with the 5th spot is Jake Peavy’s return.  If he comes back and is able to pitch similarly to how he used to, the rotation’s grade goes from B to A.  However thats a big IF, so we’re going to have to wait and see.

The bullpen had a make over with key departures by JJ Putz and long time closer Bobby Jenks.  Usually a turnover of that talent would spell disastor for a bullpen the following season, however Kenny Williams always keeps the pen stocked with quality power arms.  Thornton, who was the best set up guy in the majors, will now step into a closers role with youngster Chris Sale and Sergio Santos both also being capable for the position.  The back of the pen will probably be fluid for a while though because the Sox most likely want Sale to take the closer spot and keep Thornton as set up man, as this worked well for them down the stretch last year.  Next to those three are key pick up Jesse Crain and veteran Tony Pena.  Both are proven and reliable.  All in all, despite the losses, the pen should still be one of the best in the majors.

Now all thats left is the beer, peanuts, and long lazy summer afternoons…oh yeah and Obama.  PLAY BALL.

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